The Lead
With the main components of the NFL offseason behind us, Pro Football Focus is ready to hand out grades to each team on their roster reconstructions, and the Broncos have a report card they can be proud of.
Denver is one of just three teams to receive an A.
"Few teams made a bigger move in the offseason than the Broncos, who finally found a franchise quarterback in Russell Wilson via trade," Sam Monson wrote. "Last offseason, this roster was an elite quarterback away from contending, and while it isn't quite the same roster, they will be hoping that enough of the important pieces remain so that the same thing is true."
In addition to the overall offseason grade, PFF also graded how the teams did in free agency and the draft.
The Broncos received an "Above Average" in free agency and a B plus in the draft, having added a star quarterback, great pass-rushers and depth at tight end.
"In the draft, Denver added another pass-rush specialist in Nik Bonitto, who owns the best pass-rush win rate of any pass rusher in the draft class over the last two years," Monson wrote. "Greg Dulcich adds depth to that tight end room again, and now Denver has to hope that it has the system in place to maximize Wilson."
Below the Fold
Cynthia Frelund’s new win total projections for NFL.com put the Broncos at 9.2 wins, but that still places them in the playoffs.
"My models are slightly more bearish on the Broncos than many other prognostications, in large part due to the overall difficulty of the division and the fact that they must face the Chiefs late in the season (Weeks 14 and 17), typically when we see Kansas City come into form," Frelund wrote. "That said, the front of their schedule gives Denver the chance to be the last unbeaten this year (even with a Week 4 matchup at Las Vegas). While it's most probable that the Broncos are 5-3 heading into their Week 9 bye, they go 8-0 in 10.1 percent of my model's simulations. FYI: This doesn't mean they will only win 4.2 more games after their bye; rather, that they are strongly favored (which I define as a win probability greater than 57 percent) in four of their first eight games (vs. the Seahawks, Texans, Jets and Jaguars) and have better than 71 percent odds of winning at least one more game before their bye."
