BUFFALO, N.Y. — The playoffs are here.
For the first time since the Broncos hoisted the Lombardi Trophy to cap the 2015 season, Denver will take the field for a postseason matchup.
But the Broncos aren't satisfied with simply making an appearance.
"I think one of the biggest misconceptions about this opportunity that we have is everyone feels like the Broncos are happy and satisfied with just making the playoffs," wide receiver Courtland Sutton said Wednesday. "I'm here to [debunk] that right now. Yes, we are happy to have made the playoffs. However, it's not about just making the playoffs. Now that we're in, it's one week at a time."
Denver's path begins with a Wild Card Weekend matchup with Josh Allen and the second-seeded Bills — and the Broncos know the challenge they'll face in Orchard Park, New York on Sunday.
"Obviously, we're playing a really good football team," Head Coach Sean Payton said Wednesday. "We're going to have to play a real complete game."
As the Broncos look to put together that type of performance and hand Buffalo its first home loss of the year, they've embraced the stakes that come with a postseason matchup.
"You lose, you go home," running back Audric Estime said. "It's do-or-die, but pressure makes diamonds. I feel like everyone in this building likes pressure, and this type of pressure is an opportunity that doesn't come along too often. When you have the type of pressure like that, you have to make some diamonds out of it."
These are the questions that will determine if the Broncos can deliver a gem of a performance and earn an upset win in Buffalo:
WILL BO NIX CONTINUE HIS STRONG PLAY IN HIS FIRST PLAYOFF START?
After a spectacular regular season in which quarterback Bo Nix threw the second-most touchdowns by a rookie in NFL history, the Broncos' signal-caller will look to translate his play to the postseason.
And while the Broncos' ability to run the football and control the game will likely be critical, history shows Nix may need to be at his best for the Broncos to knock off the Bills. In Allen's five career playoff losses, the opposing quarterbacks have led their teams to an average of 31.2 points per game while accounting for 13 touchdowns, no interceptions and a 120.7 quarterback rating.
"This is where I want to be," Nix said Wednesday. "[These are] the moments that matter. These are the moments that people remember you by. You've just got to go out there and cut it loose and go out there and play and trust your teammates, trust what you've prepared for throughout this entire year and, quite frankly, my career [and] my life. This is just where all that work finally gets to come into play. It's going to be fun."
How can Nix become both the fourth rookie quarterback to win his first career playoff start on the road and the first rookie to win on the road in the postseason since 2012? It may start by getting on the move. According to Next Gen Stats, Nix ranks first in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns while throwing on the move. Buffalo's defense has allowed 10 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the run, which is tied for most in the NFL. With Nix's dual-threat ability, he could test the Bills with his athleticism.
His ability to navigate pressure — and the offensive line's ability to provide a clean pocket — could also be a critical element. The Bills pressured opposing quarterbacks at the 12th highest rate this season, while Denver allowed the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL. If the Broncos can win the battle up front, it could give Denver an edge. When Nix wasn't pressured this season, he completed more than 70 percent of his passes while throwing 24 touchdowns and posting a 104.2 passer rating.
If Nix stays clean, he could find Sutton and wideout Marvin Mims Jr. — who has four touchdowns over his last two games — to test a Buffalo defense that has struggled against playoff teams. Buffalo's defense allowed an average of 33 points and more than 400 yards in five matchups against playoff opponents this season, and the unit also allowed a 55.6 percent third-down conversion rate and a 90 percent red-zone conversion rate. Buffalo went 2-3 in those matchups, and the team's scoring, red-zone and third-down numbers against playoff teams ranked last in the NFL.
Perhaps most importantly, Nix has shown the ability to play big in the biggest moments. He led a trio of second-half touchdown drives in a high-stakes game in Cincinnati, and he led the Broncos down the field in Kansas City for a game-winning field-goal attempt. If the game is close late, Nix has shown a level of poise that could translate well to the postseason.
"He's played in a lot of big games," Payton said. "Honestly, last week for him — for many guys — was like a playoff game. He's seasoned, and he's been in big moments, and you know what? He's going to play in bigger games."
Nix may be a playoff newcomer, but it's certainly possible he can find immediate success and help the Broncos find postseason success.
CAN THE BRONCOS' DEFENSE SLOW JOSH ALLEN AND CO.?
Good on good.
That's what to expect when the Broncos' defense battles with Allen and the Bills' high-powered offense.
Among quarterbacks with 10 career playoff starts, Allen ranks first in postseason history in yards per game, touchdowns per game and touchdown to interception ratio. And despite the Bills losing Allen's top receiving threat in Stefon Diggs before the season, the Buffalo offense kept on rolling. The Bills ranked second in scoring offense this season, and they posted the second most 30-point games in NFL history, behind only the 2013 Broncos.
A balanced attack, Buffalo is the first team in NFL history with 30 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns. Thirteen different players scored a receiving touchdown — which tied an NFL record — while eight Bills had multiple receiving touchdowns. Buffalo features talented wide receivers in Khalil Shakir — who led the team with 76 catches for 821 yards — Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman, and the Bills also have talented tight ends in Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid. Running back James Cook posted 16 rushing touchdowns — tied for the most in the league — and the Bills' running backs led the NFL in receiving touchdowns and yards per reception.
The Buffalo offense also avoids negative plays. The Bills allowed just 14 sacks this season, and they're the only team in the Super Bowl era to allow fewer than one sack and one giveaway per game.
Denver's defense, though, isn't backing down from the challenge. The Broncos led the NFL in sacks, and they've got a slew of pass rushers in Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper and Zach Allen that could test Allen and Co. On the back end of Denver's defense, first-team All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II could help limit Allen in the passing game.
"Relentlessness," defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers said. "That's what it's going to take to win this game from a defensive line standpoint, but also from a team standpoint.
"... It's making sure you understand that [Allen's] going to scramble, he's going to make his plays. But just making sure that every play, he has to earn."
The Broncos' defense has repeatedly risen to the occasion in 2024, particularly against playoff teams. Denver's defense allowed the fewest yards per game and posted the most sacks per game against playoff teams, and the unit ranked second in scoring defense against that same postseason group. And while Allen is playing at an MVP level, his 71.0 passer rating when facing Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph ranks 27th among the 28 quarterbacks who have made at least two starts vs. a Joseph-led defense.
The Bills will likely still make their plays, but the Denver defense could push the Broncos toward a win if the group can get after Allen and prevent his signature big plays.
CAN DENVER WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE?
In the Broncos' 24-22 "Monday Night Football" win in Buffalo last season, Denver forced four turnovers and was plus-three in the turnover margin. Against Buffalo's explosive offense, the Broncos may need to post a similar type of performance to limit the Bills' scoring chances.
Denver's defense has been opportunistic — the unit finished the regular season tied for seventh in takeaways — and the Broncos are 9-3 this season when forcing a turnover. That may not be an easy task against Buffalo, though. The Bills have turned the ball over just eight times this season, which is tied for the fewest in a season since the league began tracking the stat in 1933. As a team, Buffalo's plus-24 turnover margin is the best mark since the 2012 New England Patriots.
The Broncos, however, have found their own success in winning the turnover margin. Denver hasn't lost the turnover battle since a Week 9 loss to the Ravens, and the Broncos are 7-2 this season when they hold an edge in the takeaway margin.
"Well, you're in the playoffs now," Joseph said Thursday. "The ball is everything. Obviously, their keys to victory have been taking care of the football, playing great defense and running the football. It's a challenge, but we have to hunt the ball. If [Allen] makes a mistake, we have to make our plays."
In the postseason, a single turnover can change the course of a game. In this battle of strengths, the Broncos could tilt the outcome in their favor by finding a way to force a couple of turnovers.
