ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Broncos face a critical Week 15 showdown with the Indianapolis Colts, and the outcome of the matchup will help shape the AFC playoff picture.
With a win, the Broncos' playoff odds would improve from 75 percent to 91 percent, according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats. A loss, however, would lower Denver's playoff chances to 51 percent.
Yet while the Broncos' playoff chances are largely impacted by whether they can handle their own business on Sunday, there are plenty of other meaningful games.
Some of the following games impact Denver's playoff odds, while others will help decide if the Broncos can climb higher in the postseason seeding.
Whether you're at Empower Field at Mile High or sitting at home watching from the couch, here's a closer look at which teams you should be pulling for on Sunday:
[Editor's note: All odds listed below are taken from the New York Times' playoff simulator.]
Dolphins at Texans (11 a.m. MT on CBS)
You should root for … the Texans.
According to the simulator, a nine-percentage point swing is at stake in this game. A Houston win in the early window would boost the Broncos' playoff chances to 78 percent before kickoff in Denver. If Miami loses to the Texans and the Broncos beat the Colts, Denver would then be able to clinch a playoff spot with a Week 16 win over the Chargers.
Ravens at Giants (11 a.m. MT on CBS)
You should root for … the Giants.
New York's matchup with Baltimore only has a one-percent impact on Denver's overall playoff odds, but it could play a role in helping the Broncos climb in the standings. A Giants win over the Ravens would push the Broncos' chances of earning the fifth seed from 13 percent to 23 percent and give Denver — with a win over the Colts — a one-game advantage over Baltimore in the wild-card race. That's important, given that Baltimore holds the head-to-head tiebreak.
Bengals at Titans (11 a.m. MT on FOX)
You should root for … the Titans.
An upset win for Tennessee would push the Bengals to a ninth loss and drop Cincinnati's already slim playoff odds to less than one percent.
Chiefs at Browns (11 a.m. MT on CBS)
Bills at Lions (2:25 p.m. MT on CBS)
It would be beneficial if … the Chiefs and the Lions win.
I know, I know. It never feels quite right to cheer for a divisional rival, so let's use different wording for this set of games. A Kansas City win would boost the Chiefs' odds of getting the No. 1 seed to 83 percent, and a Lions win later in the day vs. Buffalo would push that number all the way to 93 percent. The pair of results would give the Chiefs three fewer losses than the Bills and increase the chances that Kansas City is locked into its playoff positioning entering Week 18, which could impact how the Chiefs approach that season-ending matchup in Denver. If the Broncos need a win in Week 18 to make the postseason or improve their seeding, that could be a factor in a few weeks.
For those wondering why they shouldn't pull for the opposite result — Buffalo locking up the No. 1 seed before Week 18 — it's not an unfair question. It's still mathematically possible, in fact. That path, though, would require a number of other variables — including the Bills winning their next three games (at DET, vs. NE, vs. NYJ), the Chiefs losing their next three (at CLE, vs. HOU, at PIT) and the Steelers losing to Philadelphia and Baltimore before knocking off Kansas City. Simply put, it requires fewer results for Kansas City to lock things up before Week 18 than it does for Buffalo to do the same.
Buccaneers at Chargers (2:25 p.m. MT on FOX)
You should root for … the Buccaneers.
Denver's playoff odds creep up slightly with a Buccaneers win, but this matchup is largely about seeding for the Broncos. The Week 16 matchup between Denver and Los Angeles will determine which team ends up in the driver's seat for a higher seed, but a Buccaneers win would still increase the Broncos' chances of getting the No. 6 spot by nearly 10 percentage points.
Steelers at Eagles (2:25 p.m. MT on FOX)
You should root for … the Eagles.
This is another game that doesn't have a tangible impact on Denver's overall playoff chances, but it does slightly improve the Broncos' chances of getting up to the No. 5 seed. If Baltimore rallies to win the AFC North, the Broncos would need to finish a game above the Steelers to earn the higher seed, given the head-to-head result from Week 2. A Philadelphia win also increases the Chiefs' chances of being locked into their seed before Week 18. If the Chiefs, Lions and Eagles all win in Week 15, then a Chiefs win over Houston in Week 16 or Pittsburgh in Week 17 would be enough to clinch the top seed before the final weekend of the season.
