The Broncos have a chance to bounce back.
After a difficult Week 9 loss to the Ravens, Denver will aim to respond in a road matchup with the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.
"Listen, there's a little bit of UFC to our league," Head Coach Sean Payton said Wednesday. "… Each week, I don't care who you're playing, if you're not careful you can catch one on the chin. You've got to get back up, and you've got to get back to work."
The challenge may be just as great in Week 10, as Denver faces the defending back-to-back Super Bowl champions. The Broncos earned a win in their last matchup with Kansas City, but Denver has not won in Arrowhead since a Week 2 thriller in 2015.
If Denver can snap that streak and earn consecutive wins over the Chiefs for the first time since Peyton Manning guided the offense, the Broncos would take a significant step toward postseason contention. With a win, the Broncos would hold a greater than 60 percent chance to make the postseason, according to the New York Times' playoff simulator.
Denver has not lost back-to-back games since the start of the season, and Payton's team will need a strong effort in Kansas City to keep that stat intact.
"It's a long season," Payton said. "So you get these tests periodically, and that's why the procurement of your players and your staff, the ingredients, it starts with that. It's not when they're successful. That's easy. It's when all of a sudden, you've come off a tough loss and you're going back on the road again to play the Chiefs. I like how they've responded. I think it's certainly an entirely different team from a year ago."
These are the questions that will determine if Denver can earn a bounce-back win:
CAN DENVER'S DEFENSE TAKE THE BALL AWAY FROM MAHOMES, CHIEFS?
The Chiefs are built to win differently in 2024, as they're running the ball at the highest rate of the Patrick Mahomes era and throwing it at the lowest clip.
In key moments, though, Mahomes has still been among the best in football — and there are signs he's taken strides after adding wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins ahead of Week 8. After completing 67.9 percent of his passes with six touchdown passes and eight interceptions over the first six games of the year, Mahomes has thrown five touchdowns and one interception — while seeing his passer rating jump nearly 30 points — since Hopkins arrived in Kansas City.
For Denver to slow Mahomes, Hopkins, Travis Kelce and the rest of a still talented Chiefs offense, the Broncos will need to first shut down a rushing attack led by Kareem Hunt. The in-season addition is averaging more than 20 touches and 90 scrimmage yards per game, and he's also recorded five touchdowns.
"It's always a trench battle," Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph said Thursday. "It's a divisional game. It's going to be a run-first game on both sides, probably, and [it's about] who can win third downs. That's the game we have to play on Sunday."
If the Broncos can shut down the run, they'll then be able to look toward getting back to the type of pressure they've applied for most of the season. And with pressure must come turnovers.
Last year's win over the Chiefs showed the value — and importance — of taking the ball away from Mahomes and Kansas City. In Denver's streak-breaking win over the Chiefs, the Broncos forced five turnovers and were plus-4 in the takeaway margin. Denver picked off Mahomes twice and also recovered three fumbles en route to a 24-9 win.
In 2024, the ability to force turnovers has been critical again. The Broncos are 5-1 when the defense records a takeaway this year, and they're 0-3 when they come up empty. Denver is also 5-0 when winning or tying the turnover margin and 0-4 when the team is on the losing end of that battle.
If Denver's third-ranked scoring defense can get back on track, the Broncos should have a chance to take away the ball and work toward an upset win.
"It's just getting back to work," outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper said Wednesday. "[It's about] knowing that the things that we've done have been good enough to this point, it's just cleaning up the little, small things. … I feel like our team definitely has a good mindset to show that our response will be strong and solid. I have full confidence moving forward."
HOW DOES QB BO NIX HANDLE CHIEFS DC STEVE SPAGNUOLO'S PRESSURE?
Following the Broncos' Week 9 game against the Ravens, Payton said he likes the way rookie quarterback Bo Nix has progressed over the course of his rookie year.
"There's still so many learning moments for him," Payton said Wednesday. "In other words, each week is another class for another test."
Nix will have another challenging assignment on Sunday, as he faces the Chiefs' Steve Spagnuolo-led defense. Since the start of the 2023, Kansas City ranks first in scoring defense and is also tied for the longest streak of consecutive games allowing fewer than 28 points in 17 seasons.
Payton expects Spagnuolo to bring pressure on more than just third down, and he and Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi combined to say that formations, play design and tempo can be among the solutions to help Nix find answers vs. a talented defense.
Nix said he's eager for a "good challenge" against the Chiefs, and he'll look to continue a strong stretch of football. Even in defeat against Baltimore, Nix connected on several chunk plays — and he's posted 12 total touchdowns and just two interceptions since Week 3.
If Nix can avoid turnovers — the Broncos are 0-4 in games in which he throws an interception — and untimely sacks, Denver's offense could have an opportunity to move the ball and score timely points.
Denver, of course, will also need its rushing game to take the stress off Nix and the passing game. Payton pointed to the rushing attack on Monday as one of the keys to success for the remainder of the year, and he said rookie Audric Estime could be in line for more action.
CAN THE BRONCOS EXECUTE IN CRITICAL MOMENTS?
After a Week 9 loss to the Ravens, the Broncos lamented missed opportunities on both sides of the ball. On offense, the Broncos had an early turnover and a pair of missed fourth-down opportunities.
Nix, though, said on Wednesday that the film revealed the Broncos "were close" on several possessions.
"I think [we were] a few fourth downs short, a few penalties short, a few mental mistakes and missed throws and subtle things that happen throughout a game," Nix said. "We weren't too far off, and I think we knew that at the end of the game, but the score kind of felt differently. Then when we were able to watch it back, I think we were reminded of that."
Against the Chiefs, the Broncos will need to capitalize on the given opportunities, particularly if the game is close in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs lead the NFL in one-possession wins in 2024, and they rank second in fourth-quarter points per game.
Mahomes has also been at his best late in games. The two-time MVP has five touchdowns and no giveaways in the fourth quarter this year, and his fourth-quarter passer rating ranks second in the NFL.
If Denver has chances to get off the field on third down defensively or to score touchdowns in the red zone, the team must find a way to convert on those opportunities. And against a high-caliber opponent, the Broncos must be at their best in critical moments.
"They're known for winning those one-score games," Nix said. "That's what makes a championship team. That's why they've won, is because they win the close ones, and in the NFL you play close ones every week. We're close, and we have to make it a close game. We have to go out there and find a way to win it. It's just going to come down to all three phases of the game, both sides of the ball just stopping them when it's critical — and then we have to score when we have a chance."
