When the Broncos walk off the field at SoFi Stadium on Thursday night, they could be playoff bound.
A prime-time win over their divisional-rival Chargers would be enough to clinch the franchise's first postseason berth since 2015, and the Broncos aren't avoiding the stakes of the game.
"I think we all feel the urgency, whether you're here for your second year like me or Year 8 like Garett [Bolles] and [Year] 7 like Courtland [Sutton]," tackle Mike McGlinchey said Tuesday. "This place deserves a championship-level football team."
The Broncos are also aware of the challenge that awaits as they face a Chargers team on a two-game skid — and coming off a 23-point loss — that is also fighting for its spot in the postseason.
In the first "Thursday Night Football" to ever be flexed, the Broncos and Chargers will battle in the first game in NFL history between two teams tied for first in scoring defense in Week 8 or later. The Broncos — 2-0 in prime time this season — currently sit one spot ahead of the Chargers in the AFC wild-card race and will look to both hold on to the No. 6 seed and split the season series with LA.
"I think they also know what's at stake, so we're going to get their best shot," safety P.J. Locke said Tuesday.
Here are five questions — it is a big game, after all — that will decide if the Broncos can come away from "Thursday Night Football" with a 10th win and a spot in the postseason.
CAN THE BRONCOS START FAST?
Ahead of the Broncos' Week 7 win over the Saints, Head Coach Sean Payton called out the importance of getting ahead early on "Thursday Night Football."
"When you do some studies, halftime leads on Thursday generally have a higher percentage of wins than on a normal Sunday," Payton said. "Fatigue can obviously take place, so I think playing well early is important."
As Denver prepared for its matchup in Los Angeles, Payton again echoed that sentiment.
"We talk about it," Payton said Tuesday. "And these guys are a fast-starting team. Their point differential in the first quarter is better than ours. And so, yeah, I think that's important."
Through 15 weeks, the Broncos hold a minus-24 point differential in the first quarter, while the Chargers have posted a plus-34 margin. The Broncos have been held scoreless in the first quarter in eight of their 14 games, and they've scored a first-quarter touchdown in three of those opportunities. Los Angeles, meanwhile, has held its opponents scoreless in the first quarter of seven of its 14 games.
In recent weeks, though, that has changed. The Chargers' opponents have put at least a field goal up in the first quarter in five of the last six games and posted a touchdown in the opening frame in two of the last three outings. On the other side of the football, the Chargers' offense has scored in the first quarter in all but three games and has notched at least seven points in half of its games.
The teams' previous meeting resulted in the Chargers posting a 10-0 first-quarter lead and 20-0 halftime advantage. While the Broncos mounted a furious rally to have a chance at an onside kick, they were ultimately unable to recover from a 23-0 deficit.
"You have to get first downs, and you have to score touchdowns," wide receiver Courtland Sutton said Tuesday about starting fast. "Ultimately at the end of the day, that's really it. You have to execute. You have to get the ball past the first-down marker, and you have to get the ball into the end zone. That's the ultimate [goal]. It's as simple as that."
The early point difference has not prevented the Broncos from surging late in games, as Denver's plus-89 overall point differential ranks sixth in the league, while the Chargers (+47) rank 12th.
For the Broncos to win on Thursday night at SoFi Stadium, though, they may need to avoid too big of an early hole.
CAN BO NIX AND COURTLAND SUTTON LINK UP FOR BIG PLAYS?
While rookie quarterback Bo Nix tossed three interceptions for the first time in his career in a win over the Colts, he also rebounded to throw a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns en route to a three-score day.
"He's played a lot of games," Payton said of Nix. "He knows how to win. He made some big throws for us there that we needed."
And after a fiery fourth quarter against the Chargers back in October, Nix could try to keep his strong play going.
Through three quarters in that loss, Nix had completed just 4-of-14 passes for 27 yards and an interception as Denver was kept off the scoreboard. Then, he put it all together in an impressive fourth quarter, completing 15-of-19 passes for 189 yards, two touchdowns and a 143.2 passer rating.
During that fourth quarter, Nix found Sutton for a jaw-dropping touchdown — and Sutton could be poised to make more plays against a Chargers secondary that will be without cornerback Cam Hart and will likely miss defensive back Elijah Holden, as well.
Sutton posted six consecutive games with at least five catches and 70 yards before Denver's win over the Colts, and he caught four passes for 53 yards and a score in Denver's last meeting vs. Los Angeles. The former Pro Bowler has scored in three consecutive games vs. the Chargers, and six of his 29 career catches vs. LA have been for scores.
The Chargers are 6-0 when allowing less than 17 points this season, and they're 2-6 when allowing more than 17 points to their opponents. If Nix can avoid turnovers and link up with Sutton for big plays and big scores, Denver could gain the edge it needs.
CAN PAT SURTAIN II CONTINUE HIS LOCKDOWN PLAY?
One potential reason for the Chargers' offensive success against the Broncos in Week 6? No Pat Surtain II.
The All-Pro cornerback suffered an injury on the first drive of the game, and the Chargers took advantage. This time, the uber-talented Surtain will look to limit quarterback Justin Herbert and the Chargers' passing game.
According to Next Gen Stats, Surtain has allowed an average of 2.4 catches and 20.3 yards in his seven career games against the Chargers, and he has yet to allow a touchdown as the nearest man in coverage. Surtain has a pair of interceptions off Herbert, including a pick six in their first meeting in Denver in 2021.
Surtain has allowed the fewest yards per target (4.9) this year of any NFL cornerback with at least 40 targets, which explains why he's not often being targeted. He is tied for the fewest targets in the NFL among cornerbacks with at least 400 coverage snaps, and he's been targeted on just 11.7 percent of his coverage snaps against the Chargers since 2022.
Whether Surtain guards an impressive rookie in Ladd McConkey or the Chargers' leader in receiving touchdowns in Quentin Johnston, he could take a major piece of Los Angeles' offense out of the game. And if he does that, it could be good news for Denver's defense.
CAN THE BRONCOS' PASS RUSH GET TO JUSTIN HERBERT?
In the Broncos' Week 6 loss to the Chargers, Herbert was sacked just once in the first half as Los Angeles built a 20-0 halftime lead. Denver got to Herbert two more times in the second half as the unit held LA to three second-half points, and the Broncos may need to bring the pressure again.
Herbert enters the Week 16 matchup with a 16-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and he posted 11 consecutive starts without an interception before that streak was snapped in Week 15 vs. Tampa Bay. The Oregon product has not thrown an interception against a division opponent since Week 14 last season, when outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper picked him off in a Denver win. Herbert, in fact, is on pace to lead the NFL in interception rate, as just 0.5 percent of his passes this season have been picked off.
How can the Broncos force the talented quarterback into turning the ball over? It may come via pressure, as Denver boasts the most sacks in the NFL entering Week 16. Denver also has the second highest pressure rate (38.6) and blitz rate (38.4) in the NFL, and the Chargers allow the ninth-worst pressure rate (45.8) vs. blitzes in the NFL. Herbert has been pressured on 71 dropbacks by blitzes this year, which is the third-highest mark in the NFL.
The Broncos are currently on pace to be just the fifth team to lead the NFL in scoring defense and sacks in the same season, and all three of the previous AFC teams to do so advanced to at least the AFC Championship Game. If Denver can finish strong and nab the scoring defense title, the group would be just the second in franchise history to do so, joining the 1989 unit.
If the Vance Joseph-led group can force Herbert into mistakes — the Broncos have snagged the fourth-most interceptions — and win the turnover battle, Denver could be in luck. The Broncos are 9-1 this season when forcing a takeaway, and they're 7-0 when winning the turnover battle. For comparison, Denver has yet to win this season in the four games in which it has lost the turnover battle. The Chargers, though, rank fourth in the NFL with a plus-11 turnover margin.
"Part of this game is understanding how to win and how not to beat yourself or how to keep yourself from winning," Payton said Tuesday. "I think that'll be extremely important."
CAN DENVER EARN THE EDGE IN THE RUSHING BATTLE?
When the Chargers came to Denver, they ran past the Broncos. Led by J.K. Dobbins' 96 rushing yards, the Chargers put up 128 rushing yards — including 69 in the first half — against the Broncos.
Los Angeles' run-first offense passed the 120-yard mark on six occasions in the Chargers' first 10 games, and the group also crossed the 150-yard barrier on three occasions. The Chargers' rushing attack, though, hasn't been the same since Dobbins was placed on injured reserve in late November.
The Chargers have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in each of their last four games, which is the longest streak in Jim Harbaugh's career as an NFL or FBS head coach, according to Next Gen Stats. Los Angeles is averaging just 18 carries per game since Week 12, which is the fewest in the NFL — and the Chargers carried the ball just 11 times for 32 yards in Week 15 vs. the Bucs. That output is the lowest in carries and rush yards by any Harbaugh team in his NFL head-coaching career. Los Angeles has been led by Gus Edwards in each of its last three games, but he's posted fewer than 40 yards in each of those contests.
If Denver's fifth-ranked rushing defense — which is allowing the second-fewest yards per carry — can stifle a struggling Chargers' run game, it could tilt the game in Denver's favor.
The Broncos, of course, will aim to get their own run game going in Los Angeles. Denver will be without Jaleel McLaughlin, who was ruled out with a quad injury, which may lead to more work for rookie Audric Estime. Denver has recorded fewer than 100 rushing yards in three of its last five games, and the Broncos' coaching staff is looking closely at how to find more success.
"I would say there there's some looks that we have to be better at, relative to when we're running a certain play into some tough looks where now you don't really have the leverage," Payton said Monday. "We have to do a better job as coaches, starting with me, and having solutions when the looks aren't what you're practicing. Overall, I think it's an area that … — here we are with three weeks left in the season — we have to find more consistency there."
While the Chargers' defense is tied for first in the league in points allowed, the unit has given up 200 rushing yards in two of its last four games — including 223 yards on Sunday vs. Tampa Bay.
If Denver can gain the edge on the ground by limiting the Chargers and getting its own run game going, it could help determine which team can grind out long drives, control the field-position game and ultimately win the game.
