DENVER — As the Broncos began their week of preparation for a Week 11 matchup with the Falcons, Head Coach Sean Payton showed his team a series of clips from the toughest losses of his career.
And at the end, he had a message for his team.
"I said to them, 'I don't have enough time here to show you all the good clips,'" Payton said Wednesday. "Just like in life, we're going to have some [tough moments] and then we get up and we start fighting again."
The Broncos have taken that message to heart as they look to respond to an emotional Week 11 loss to the Chiefs.
"I think we've been through a lot of highs and a lot of lows this year already, and I think that we're very close to turning a corner and getting over the hump," quarterback Bo Nix said Wednesday. "I think we have a young team, and we've done a lot of growing this year. We have some younger guys that are playing a lot of ball, so that only helps. I definitely think it's ahead of us. I think we've played some good ball so far, but I think the consistency piece is going to continue to grow for us. I think it's right around the corner."
The next test for a Broncos team that continues to show signs of progress comes against the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons.
With a win, the Broncos will improve to 6-5 and earn a sweep over an opposing division for the first time since 2015. According to Next Gen Stats, the Broncos' playoff odds would also increase to 62 percent with a victory.
These are the questions that will decide if Denver can get back in the win column and take the next step toward a postseason berth:
CAN BO NIX TAKE ADVANTAGE?
Nix, simply put, continues to make strides.
Nix entered Week 11 leading all rookies with 10 touchdown passes, and he has already posted the second-most games by a rookie with a 70-plus completion percentage, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Only Dak Prescott (4) has more such games than Nix's three. Nix can also join Peyton Manning as just the second rookie in NFL history with 200 passing yards and two touchdowns in four consecutive home games. He also has the fifth-best touchdown-to-interception ratio (10-2) in the NFL since Week 5.
The Week 10 Rookie of the Week is playing some of his strongest football of the season, and he could find more success against Atlanta. The Falcons ruled out seven defenders for this week's matchup, including a pair of starting cornerbacks. Cornerback Mike Hughes, slot cornerback Dee Alford, inside linebacker Troy Andersen and outside linebacker James Smith-Williams are all starters who were ruled out, and reserve nickel Antonio Hamilton Sr. is among the other players on the two-deep who will not play.
In addition to the slew of injuries, the Falcons have also struggled to rush the passer this season. Atlanta has the lowest pressure rate (27.4), the lowest sack rate (2.4 percent) and the fewest sacks (9) of any team in the NFL. Nix, meanwhile, has thrown seven touchdowns and three interceptions with a 94.0 passer rating when not pressured this season.
Nix has thrown just two interceptions since Week 3, but he also has retained an ability to push the ball down the field and earn chunk plays.
"Remember when we used that analogy of watching a boring round from a good golfer?" Payton said Friday. "You just felt that way [watching him] in college. You didn't feel in harm's way. That's a good trait to have, and the opposite is tough."
CAN THE BRONCOS GET TO KIRK COUSINS?
The Broncos' defense bounced back in a big way in a Week 10 matchup with the Chiefs, as the unit held Kansas City to 16 points and 1-of-4 on red-zone trips. The unit may need to be similarly effective against a talented Falcons offense that features a slew of playmakers in Bijan Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
It starts, though, with the quarterback. Kirk Cousins joined the Falcons in free agency, and he ranks third in the NFL in passing yards (2,634) and tied for fourth in passing touchdowns (17). Cousins has thrown at least three touchdowns in three games this season, including two of the past three weeks. Prior to a hiccup in New Orleans, Cousins totaled seven touchdowns and no interceptions while completing more than 79 percent of his passes in Week 8 and 9 wins.
For the Broncos to slow Cousins and the Falcons' offense, they may need to put pressure on the veteran signal caller. Despite all his success, Cousins has more giveaways this season than all quarterbacks outside of Sam Darnold and Gardner Minshew, and his 59.3 completion percentage against the blitz ranks 25th in the NFL entering Week 11. Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph isn't shy about bringing pressure, as Denver has the fourth highest blitz rate (43.1 percent) in the NFL.
It will also help, though, if Denver's secondary can provide tight coverage and force Cousins to hold the ball for an extra beat. Cousins has completed 72.7 percent of his passes and thrown 10 touchdowns and just one interception when releasing the ball within 2.5 seconds of the snap. His 114.2 passer rating in that scenario ranks second in the NFL. When the ball doesn't come out as quick, though, Cousins completion percentage drops to 66.5 percent and his passer rating falls to 91.3. He's thrown seven touchdowns and seven interceptions when holding the ball longer than 2.5 seconds.
WHO WINS THE RUSHING GAME BATTLE?
When Payton discussed the keys to the remainder of the season ahead of Week 10, he mentioned the ability to both run the football on offense and stop the run defensively. In Kansas City, Denver limited Kareem Hunt to 2.5 yards per carry, while the Broncos' own rushing attack showed flashes with Audric Estime.
The challenge of stopping the Falcons' running game may be even more difficult, as Atlanta has rushed for at least 150 yards three times in its last five games. The Falcons rank 12th in rushing offense, and Robinson has been a weapon out of the backfield. Robinson is averaging nearly 130 scrimmage yards over the last five games, which leads the NFL since Week 6. He is the first player with at least 450 rush yards, five rushing touchdowns and 150 receiving yards in a five-game span since Christian McCaffrey in the second half of the 2023 season. To pressure Cousins, the Broncos must first find a way to bottle up Robinson.
When Denver possesses the ball, it's possible Estime continues to receive more opportunities. The Notre Dame product posted a career high in attempts and rushing yards against Kansas City, and Payton and Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi both suggested Estime could continue to see more action.
"We'll see how it shakes out going forward," Lombardi said Thursday. "He's a big, tough, strong guy — and those guys are built to last. He can definitely handle the carries."
With the Falcons' front impacted by injuries, the Broncos may be able to again run the ball effectively.
While the quarterbacks will draw much of the attention in this game, whichever team can find a rhythm on the ground may be best positioned to succeed.
