The playoffs don't begin for several more weeks, but it may feel like the postseason on Sunday in Denver.
When the Broncos welcome the Colts on Sunday, the stakes will be undeniably high — and Denver's players aren't shying away from that reality.
"We're not acting like it's not a big deal," tight end Adam Trautman said. "It is a big deal. Obviously, there's percentages when you win or lose this game or whatever the case is, and we understand that. So, we know how important this is."
Denver's playoff chances would improve to 91 percent with a win and put the Broncos on the precipice of their first playoff berth since 2015. A loss, though, would push the Broncos back into a tight race with Indianapolis and potentially require the Broncos to win their final three games.
In a matchup that features two dynamic young quarterbacks in Bo Nix and Anthony Richardson — and a Denver defense that is looking to bounce back to its standard of play — the Broncos certainly don't want to take a step backward.
"Right now, we're in the driver's seat, and we want to stay there," tackle Mike McGlinchey said earlier in the week. "And I don't think there's anybody in this locker room that doesn't believe that we're capable of doing that.
"… There's no time [and] there's no room for error, and we've got to do what we've got to do week in and week out, and it starts this week."
These are the questions that will determine if Denver can earn its fourth consecutive win and secure its first winning season since 2016:
WILL BO NIX KEEP HIS MOMENTUM IN RETURN FROM BYE?
No rookie quarterback has posted better numbers than Nix, who leads rookie passers in passing touchdowns (17) and passing yards per game (218.6).
But since Week 5, Nix's stat line has been impressive for a quarterback of any experience level. Over his last nine games, Nix ranks in the top 10 among qualified quarterbacks in wins, touchdown-to-interception ratio, passer rating and total touchdowns. Only Lamar Jackson (7) has posted more games than Nix (5) with at least two passing touchdowns and no interceptions since Week 5.
"I think the better you play and the more reps you get, the more experience you get, I think naturally you feel more confident out there," Nix said Wednesday when asked if confidence can increase over the course of a season. "I think the reverse can happen as well. If you're not playing as good, you can start to get in your head, or maybe lose some of that confidence. So, it's definitely important to understand where your confidence should come from: the preparation and the week leading up to the game and not necessarily how the outcome of the games goes. ... Are you getting better as a player? Are you making strides as a person? What does that look like for each individual person? I definitely think confidence can be grown as the season goes."
Against the Colts, it's possible Nix finds more success. Indianapolis enters the game allowing the second-highest completion percentage of any defense, and the Colts rank 29th in total defense, 26th in passing defense and 29th in third-down defense. Despite the yardage totals, the Colts are tied for 18th in scoring defense and rank in the top 10 in takeaways.
Nix could also be aided by the performance of running backs Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin and Audric Estime, who will face the Colts' 31st-ranked rushing defense.
The Broncos' offense has averaged more than 31 points per game over the last three games, and they've hit the 28-point mark in each of their last three home games.
If Nix can continue to play at a high level and avoid giveaways — his two interceptions vs. Cleveland were his first interceptions since Week 9 — he and the Broncos might be able to turn in another impressive performance.
WILL THE BRONCOS WIN THE BIG-PLAY BATTLE?
Richardson isn't afraid to look for the big play. In a Week 13 win over the Patriots, Richardson attempted seven throws of at least 20 yards as the strong-armed player pushed the ball down the field.
The key for Denver's defense? Make sure he isn't successful. Richardson was 0-of-7 on those throws in Week 13 and he was 1-of-13 for 22 yards and two interceptions on passes of at least 10 air yards vs. New England, according to NFL Pro. Over his last two games, Richardson has completed 1-of-14 passes of at least 20 air yards for 39 yards.
Richardson, though, has found success on those types of shots at times. In a win over the Jets, he connected on deep passes of 31 and 39 yards.
With Broncos cornerback Riley Moss ruled out, Denver will need to find ways to prevent those types of chunk plays after giving up significant yardage through the air against the Browns.
"I like our depth," Payton said of the secondary. "I said this after the game. We always use that meeting when we go in [and we say], 'If we did that [and] played that again.' ... There are always things we would've done differently, and certainly I felt that way. I mentioned a certain play call, but there's more than just one call. You hope when the game's finished, that number is at a minimum. I think we've had a good week. We've got plenty of depth on the back end. We just have to understand who we're playing and how we're playing this game. I think we've made a pretty good point of that."
Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph said Thursday rookie cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine is "ready to play" if called upon, and he acknowledged the need for the defense to prevent big gains.
"Explosive plays can hurt you," Joseph said. "You want to make teams grind it out and put drives together, not give them one-play touchdowns. When a team is aggressive like that and the quarterback has a big arm — he can throw it 70 yards in the air — that becomes dangerous if you make a mistake. It forces you to be exact in coverage. If you are, you can make the plays and make them earn and make them grind. If you're giving up explosive passes, that's a bad sign for a defense. We can't do that."
As the Broncos look to limit the Colts' big plays, they must also find a way to make defensive plays of their own. Even as they allowed a high yardage total against the Browns, the group still posted a pair of pick sixes and three total interceptions. Denver has posted an 8-1 record this season when recording a takeaway, and its defense will face a young quarterback who has turned the ball over multiple times in three of his last four starts.
Denver may also have a stylistic advantage, as the Broncos blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Richardson, meanwhile, has posted a 41.3 completion percentage and a 65.4 passer rating against the blitz, both of which rank last in the NFL entering Week 15. Richardson, though, has found a degree of success against man defense, which the Broncos play at the third highest rate in the NFL. Richardson's 77.1 passer rating against man defense is nearly 20 points higher than the line he's posted vs. zone schemes.
If Denver can crack down on the chunk plays through the air and find a way to snag an interception or two from Richardson, the Broncos could be poised to earn a win.
CAN DENVER'S DEFENSE SLOW DOWN INDY'S RUN GAME?
Since Richardson's return from a two-week stint as Joe Flacco's backup, his work on the ground has been more significant. Over his first six starts of the season, he carried the ball at least nine times on just one occasion. After returning to the lineup in Week 11, he has carried the ball at least nine times in each game and posted 29 total carries for an average of 4.9 yards per carry.
"It brings a lot of challenges," Payton said of Richardson's involvement in the run game. "You kind of get your 11th man back. There are zone schemes, there are gap schemes, there's a number of things that can stress you. We had the benefit of that a little bit with [Saints QB] Taysom Hill the same way. He's got great arm strength down the field. Part of — a big part of their run game — is both he and the halfback. So, it presents a completely type different challenge than weeks prior."
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is averaging the fewest yards per carry of his career, but he is still posting more than four yards per carry. He's also averaging more than 18 carries per game, and the Colts may look to use their run game to keep Richardson out of third-and-long scenarios.
While Denver's defense struggled at times in the team's Week 13 win, the group held Cleveland's Nick Chubb to 21 rushing yards and 2.3 yards per carry. Over the course of the season, Denver's defense is allowing the sixth fewest rushing yards per game and the third fewest per carry.
If the Broncos can stop the run against the Colts and force Indianapolis into unfavorable scenarios — or if Denver's offense can build a lead to push Indianapolis away from the run game — that may help the Broncos get back to their stifling defensive standard.
