The Patriots' 23-14 win over San Diego on Sunday Night Football helped the Broncos in one way, but hurt them in another.
The result ensured that the 10-3 Broncos are in great shape to win the AFC West. One more win -- no matter who it's against -- will give them their fourth consecutive division crown, because the Broncos would win any tiebreaker with the Chargers at 11-5:
- If Denver beats only San Diego, the Broncos would win on a head-to-head sweep.
- If Denver beats only Cincinnati in Week 16, the Broncos would win on a conference-record tiebreaker; they'd be deadlocked on head-to-head, division record (4-2) and record against common opponents (8-4), but the Broncos would win on conference record (9-3 to 8-4).
- If Denver beats only Oakland in Week 17, the Broncos would win on division record (5-1 to 4-2).
The Broncos also control their path to a playoff bye; with two wins in the next three games, the Broncos are assured of being off for the wild-card weekend. Given how minor injuries have accumulated like lake-effect snow with no bye after Week 4 to offer a breather, that respite could be essential.
If the Broncos finish 11-5, they would need a loss by both Indianapolis in Cincinnati at some point in the next three games to have a chance at the bye, and then would need to avoid a tiebreaker that involves Pittsburgh, as that would bring the strength-of-victory tiebreaker into play (however, it is possible to clinch the strength-of-victory tiebreaker against Pittsburgh this week).
But the Patriots' win continued to ensure that there is no Broncos path to the No. 1 seed that does not involve a Patriots loss. Even with one New England defeat, the Broncos would still have to win every game left to capitalize.
In the short term, the focus is on sealing a fourth consecutive postseason trip. Here are this week's Broncos postseason scenarios:
DENVER BRONCOS
... can clinch the AFC West with:
1) DEN win or tie
... can clinch a first-round bye with:
1) DEN win IND loss CIN loss PIT loss or tie
2) DEN win IND loss CIN loss DEN clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over PIT
... can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) MIA loss or tie HOU loss or tie CIN loss PIT loss
2) MIA loss or tie HOU loss or tie BAL loss CLE loss or tie
3) MIA loss or tie HOU loss or tie BAL loss PIT win
Flip through photos of the Broncos' 58 touchdowns this season, from Julius Thomas' opening-week hat trick to Peyton Manning's No. 509 to Virgil Green's first NFL touchdown.
Brock Osweiler connected with Virgil Green for the first touchdown pass of his career.
Virgil Green's first TD as a Bronco capped off the scoring for the team.
Tony Carter returned Derek Carr's fumble for a touchdown with less than five minutes left in the game.
C.J. Anderson broke three tackles on the way to his third TD of the game, putting the Broncos up 27-7.
On first-and-goal, C.J. Anderson cut around the edge for an easy TD.
Anderson's first of three scores on the day was an 11-yard TD run. He slammed through DJ Hayden and Charles Woodson into the end zone.
In the Broncos' third-consecutive scoring drive, Peyton Manning connected with Emmanuel Sanders for the go-ahead TD.
On a drive that was fueled by an Emmanuel Sanders one-handed catch, the Broncos cut the Bengals' lead with an Emmanuel Sanders' 4-yard TD catch.
Aided by a 77-yard kickoff return from Omar Bolden, the Broncos were able to score on their first drive after the half as C.J. Anderson bolted into the end zone.
Aqib Talib intercepted Andy Dalton in the first quarter and returned it for a TD – the sixth pick-six of his career.
Demaryius Thomas caught a back-shoulder fade from Peyton Manning, shook a few defenders and trotted in for the score to put the Broncos up 16-3 late in the third quarter.
C.J. Anderson's third score put the Broncos up 21-3 early in the second half.
It was Anderson's fifth touchdown in a three-week span.
Without much space, Anderson burrowed through defenders and across the goal line in the second quarter.
Anderson opened the scoring against the Bills with a weaving 6-yard touchdown in the first quarter.
Anderson exploited single coverage and caught a pass up the middle before breaking tackles on his way to the end zone.
On the opening possession against the Chiefs, Manning dropped a deep ball perfectly in Demaryius Thomas' arms for the 23-yard score.
After a T.J. Ward interception, Wes Welker caught a quick pass from Manning and ducked inside the pylon for the score.
With five minutes left in the fourth quarter, C.J. Anderson delivered the Broncos their first lead on a 10-yard run through traffic.
Early in the fourth quarter, Demaryius Thomas brought the Broncos within a field goal with his third touchdown of the game.
With just seconds left in the first half, Manning split the Dolphins' zone to find Thomas for his second touchdown.
Draped in coverage by two defenders, Demaryius Thomas brought in a 5-yard touchdown on a great throw from Manning.
Late in the second quarter, Sanders got behind the Rams' defense for a 42-yard touchdown.
The Broncos capped 35 consecutive points with a 15-yard pass from Manning to Sanders.
Facing fourth-and-inches, Manning faked a handoff and threw to a wide-open Julius Thomas, who galloped down the sideline for a 32-yard TD.
Julius Thomas caught a short pass and powered through Charles Woodson for the touchdown.
With time ticking down in the first half, Sanders corralled a deep pass from Manning for the diving touchdown.
After catching a short dump off with one-hand, Anderson broke several tackles and weaved his way across the field for a 51-yard score.
The long touchdown gave the Broncos a 13-10 lead and a spark late in the second quarter.
Hillman dove into the end zone just inside the left pylon for his first career receiving touchdown.
This touchdown was Thomas' league-leading 10th receiving touchdown of the year.
Hillman got the Broncos on the board with a 1-yard TD run around the left edge.
Thompson became the first undrafted rookie to record multiple rushing touchdowns in a game since RB Mike Bell in 2006. His second score of the game put the Broncos up 35-14.
Thompson scored on a 2-yard touchdown run on a fullback dive.
Manning connected with Sanders on a slant for Sanders' third score of the game, making it a two-touchdown game.
Late in the first half, Manning found Sanders behind the defense for a 31-yard touchdown, Sanders' second of the game.
Sanders' diving touchdown catch in the back of the end zone put the Broncos up 7-0 in the second quarter.
Sanders celebrates his first of three touchdowns of the game with a Mile High salute.
Hillman was the final Bronco to get on the board with a 1-yard TD run, his second of the game.
Hillman weaved his way through Niners defenders on his way to a 37-yard score.
Thomas reeled in a gorgeous deep ball from Manning early in the third quarter to put the Broncos up 28-10.
On third-and-goal from the 8, Manning looked for Demaryius Thomas on an out route just inside the end zone.
Manning connected with Thomas for his NFL-record 509th TD pass, passing Brett Favre.
Thomas dragged his toes perfectly after snagging the pass on his way out of bounds.
Manning tied Brett Favre's record with this TD pass, his 508th, to Welker.
After his defender ran into the referee, Sanders caught a 3-yard pass from Manning to get his first TD as a Bronco.
Sanders celebrated the TD with a Mile High Salute.
Aqib Talib sealed a 31-17 win over the Jets with a pick-six of Geno Smith in the closing seconds.
Julius Thomas catches an easy touchdown on a slant for his second score of the day and eighth of the year.
Late in the first half, Manning threw up the seam for Julius Thomas, who snagged the ball and hung on for the 22-yard TD.
On third-and-goal from the 1, Manning found Demaryius Thomas through traffic to take a 10-7 lead.
Undrafted rookie Juwan Thompson scooted up the middle for an 8-yard touchdown, the first of his career.
Julius Thomas caught his sixth touchdown of the season to increase the Broncos' fourth quarter lead to 14.
Manning hit Demaryius Thomas in stride down the sideline and Thomas did the rest, outrunning everyone for an 86-yard TD.
Demaryius Thomas caught a short pass, broke tackles and juked defenders on his way to a 31-yard touchdown.
Thomas celebrated the score by leaping into the stands.
Manning didn't take long to find TD No. 500 against the Cardinals.
He hit Julius Thomas in the first quarter for a 7-yard touchdown, making him the second QB ever to throw 500 touchdowns.
With time running down in regulation, Manning hit Tamme deep for a 26-yard touchdown, capping an 80-yard drive in 41 seconds.
Tamme's touchdown, along with a two-point conversion to Demaryius Thomas, sent the game to overtime.
Manning threw a shovel pass to Julius Thomas, who waltzed into the end zone untouched.
Demaryius Thomas brought in his first score of the year with one hand despite tight coverage.
Tamme was wide open for a touchdown from Manning, the fifth score by a Broncos tight end of the season.
Julius Thomas caught his fourth touchdown of the season less than five minutes into Week 2.
Manning celebrated with teammates after hitting Julius Thomas for the duo's fourth TD on the season.
Ball changed direction at the line and dove over the goal line for a 3-yard score.
Julius Thomas easily shakes LaRon Landry at the line for his third TD of the game.
Manning found Julius Thomas in the open field and the tight end scooted up the left side for the score.
On third-and-goal from the 3, Manning hung in the pocket and threw for Julius Thomas.
Julius Thomas brought in the Broncos' first touchdown of the year despite coverage.
League-wide, nobody has clinched a playoff spot. According to CBSSports.com's Joe Ferreira, this is the first non-strike season in which no team has sealed its playoff spot with three games remaining since 1979. In that year, no team finished better than 12-4, and 15 of 28 teams clustered from 12-4 to 9-7 -- 10 of which sat logjammed at 9-7 or 10-6. Nine of 14 AFC teams had winning records, including the Broncos, whose 10-6 mark got them the No. 2 wild-card spot by a single game over New England, Cleveland, Seattle and Oakland.
Three AFC divisions can be clinched Sunday by their leaders winning: the AFC West, AFC East and AFC South. In each case, the first-place team faces the second-place team (or, in the case of New England, a team tied for second place, which is Miami).
The other AFC scenarios:
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
... can clinch the AFC East with:
1) NE win or tie
... can clinch a first-round bye with:
1) NE win IND loss PIT loss or tie CIN loss or tie
2) NE win IND loss PIT loss or tie DEN loss
... can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) BUF loss or tie CIN loss PIT loss BAL loss HOU loss or tie
2) BUF loss or tie CIN loss PIT loss KC loss or tie SD loss
3) BUF loss or tie HOU loss or tie KC loss or tie SD loss BAL loss
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
... can clinch the AFC South with:
1) IND win or tie
No NFC divisions can be wrapped up, because three are tied and in the other, the NFC North, the first-place Packers (10-3) currently lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the second-place Lions (9-4), although that could change when they meet in Week 17 at Lambeau Field.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
... can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) ARI win DAL/PHI game does not end in a tie
2) ARI win DET loss ARI clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over GB
3) ARI win DET loss GB win or tie
GREEN BAY PACKERS
... can clinch a playoff spot with:
1) GB win DAL loss GB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over DAL
PLAYOFF SEEDING AFTER WEEK 14:
(Tiebreakers, if applicable, are in parentheses)
AFC
- New England, 10-3-0 (head-to-head over DEN)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .410
- Denver, 10-3-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .474
- Indianapolis, 9-4-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .462
- Cincinnati, 8-4-1
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .641
- Pittsburgh, 8-5-0 (division record over BAL; conference record over SD)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .526
- San Diego, 8-5-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .615
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:
- Baltimore, 8-5-0 (eliminated on division tiebreaker vs. PIT) *
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .410
- Houston, 7-6-0 (conference-record tiebreaker)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage:.487
- Miami, 7-6-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .462
- Kansas City, 7-6-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .436
- Buffalo, 7-6-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .564
- Cleveland, 7-6-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .538
ELIMINATED:
- N.Y. Jets, 2-11-0
- Tennessee, 2-11-0
- Jacksonville, 2-11-0
- Oakland, 2-11-0
* Among wild-card teams, division ties are broken before teams from different divisions are compared. Thus, the Ravens don't go into the 8-5-0 tiebreaker with San Diego.
NFC
- Arizona, 10-3-0 (conference-record tiebreaker)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .564
- Green Bay, 10-3-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .462
- Philadelphia, 9-4-0 (head-to-head over DAL)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .410
- Atlanta, 5-8-0 (head-to-head over NO)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .449
- Seattle, 9-4-0 (conference record vs. DET/DAL, then common opponents vs. DET)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .590
- Detroit, 9-4-0 (conference record vs. DAL)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .538
OUTSIDE LOOKING IN:
- Dallas, 9-4-0
•Remaining opponent winning percentage: .538
- San Francisco, 7-6-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .692
- Minnesota, 6-7-0 (head-to-head over STL)
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .538
- St. Louis, 6-7-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .590
- New Orleans, 5-8-0
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .308
- Carolina, 4-8-1
• Remaining opponent winning percentage: .359
ELIMINATED:
- Chicago, 5-8-0
- N.Y. Giants, 4-9-0
- Washington, 3-10-0
- Tampa Bay, 2-11-0
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