ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — It's time to see how the Broncos stack up.
Following an offseason that featured significant roster moves and an encouraging preseason, the 2024 season has at last arrived.
The Broncos share the NFL's best season-opening winning percentage with Dallas, and Denver will put that Week 1 resume on the line as the team travels to Seattle.
In quarterback Bo Nix's first career start, the Broncos will look to win their first Week 1 game since 2021. And while all 17 regular-season games count the same in the race toward the postseason, the Broncos know the importance of starting fast.
Since 1990, just 25 percent of teams to start 0-1 have made the postseason — and 10 of the 14 eventual playoff teams from a year ago won their Week 1 matchup. Of the four teams that lost, three were defeated by teams that went on to make the playoffs.
Though the Broncos climbed out of the hole of a 1-5 start to hold a 7-6 record through Week 14 of 2023, Head Coach Sean Payton has noted on several occasions the Broncos cannot follow that same path in this new season.
"I'm never one to make predictions at the start of the season," Head Coach Sean Payton said in late August when asked about his expectations for the year. "I think it's about playing well early. I talked about that. What does that mean? We can't get off to the start we did a year ago and dig ourselves in a hole. I think that's important."
There's reason to be encouraged about the opportunity that lies ahead. While Week 1 in Seattle is a critical matchup, history shows the turnarounds that a team can make from one year to the next.
In each of the last five seasons, at least five teams made the postseason after not qualifying the previous year — including seven such teams each year from 2020-22.
"Our league has shown it to us every year — ... [the] Los Angeles Rams and Houston Texans [in 2023]," Payton said. "Once again, there's the entertainment part of our business, and then there's the football side to our business. We understand both very well, but there's a prove-them-wrong mindset."
Put another way, the "young and hungry" Broncos are eager to show what they're all about after an offseason of change.
"I think there are a lot of guys in this building with a lot of talent who haven't necessarily gotten a shot to prove that to the rest of the world yet," tackle Mike McGlinchey said after the preseason. "It's awesome to have them overlook us, because it's going to be a lot of fun when we prove them wrong."
Here, then, are the questions the Broncos must answer as they look to make an initial statement against the Seahawks in Week 1:
HOW DOES BO NIX PERFORM IN HIS FIRST START?
What a way to start an NFL career.
When Nix takes the field Sunday, he'll become the first Broncos rookie quarterback to start a season opener since John Elway in 1983 — and he'll do so in one of the most raucous environments in the league.
"It's all about communication," Nix said Wednesday. "It's all about being on the same page, keeping it simple and going out there and executing your job. When you do that, usually you can take some of the crowd out of it. It's definitely going to be the whole game; it's going to be loud. It's going to be a great atmosphere."
Nix will rely on the experience he gained in both the SEC and Pac-12 as he navigates the challenge and aims to become the first rookie quarterback to earn a Week 1 win since Sam Darnold in 2018.
The 2024 12th-overall pick showed impressive poise in the preseason, and he led Denver to scoring drives on six of the seven possessions that he guided the offense. While avoiding sacks and turnovers — Nix had neither during the preseason — the Oregon product delivered passes down the field and showed his speed on the ground. Perhaps more impressive, though, has been Nix's ability to respond from even the slightest of mistakes. In an early training camp practice, Nix overcame an early interception to throw multiple touchdown passes. And following a couple of early incompletions against Indianapolis in his first preseason action, Nix settled in to lead four scoring drives. Nix said last week the ability to overcome adversity can be both schematic and mental, and Offensive Coordinator Joe Lombardi said he's been impressed with Nix's ability to correct on the fly.
"He's hard on himself, so at first you get a little concerned because he wants to be perfect, but it doesn't affect the next play," Lombardi said Thursday. "He's been through some adversity, so he knows how to handle it. He bounces back and gets on to the next play."
Payton has spoken about the importance of playing good defense and running the football to help Nix, but the rookie will also likely need to make his share of plays if Denver is to earn a win.
"You only get your first game one time, so you have to go out there and make the most of it," Nix said Wednesday.
CAN DENVER'S DEFENSE SET AN EARLY TONE?
As Payton mentioned ahead of Week 1, the Broncos can help Nix by playing well on the defensive side of the ball. But rookie quarterback or not, captain and newly re-signed cornerback Pat Surtain II has high expectations for his unit.
"I just think the standard's the standard," Surtain said Tuesday. "We just try to be the best defense that we can be on the field. We obviously know that Bo's going to do great things, but for us, we know what type of defense we want to be, and we're just going to help the team out any way that's possible."
For months, Broncos defenders have spoken about the need to start faster after struggling in the early part of the 2023 season. Denver's late-season surge certainly proves it's possible for the team to do just that, as the Broncos allowed 19.3 points per game from Weeks 6-18 after giving up 36.2 points per game over the first five weeks of the season.
A second year with Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph should make that easier, and the Broncos seemed poised to embrace a more attacking style of defense. With reinforcements along the defensive line, Denver should improve upon a rushing defense that ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed per game in 2023.
The Broncos' first challenge, though, won't be easy. On the ground, Denver will aim to slow Kenneth Walker, who is the first player in Seahawks history with at least 1,000 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. Walker has 17 carries of at least 20 yards over the last two seasons, which ranks second in the NFL. Denver, meanwhile, allowed the second-most carries of that distance in 2023. On Sunday and beyond, the Broncos are hopeful the additions of players like John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach pay dividends.
Through the air, Denver will also face a stiff test. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith is one of five signal callers with at least 7,500 passing yards and 50 passing touchdowns since 2022. He also posted the best pass touchdown-to-interception ratio in the fourth quarter or overtime of any quarterback in 2023. While Surtain aims to lock down his man — he held Pro Bowler DK Metcalf to 36 yards in their 2022 meeting — the Broncos' other defensive backs could see increased attention as they look to cover talented receivers in Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
Second-year cornerback Riley Moss said Thursday he understands the importance of limiting the deep ball and is eager to take advantage if he's tested.
"You know it's going to happen," Moss said of being targeted. "I hope it's going to happen, and I'm ready to make a play."
HOW WILL DENVER ADJUST TO EARLY UNKNOWNS?
On both sides of the ball, the Broncos will face a degree of uncertainty that is not uncommon in season openers. The Seahawks feature a new coaching staff, and Denver will aim to quickly adjust to the defensive looks provided by Seattle head coach Mike Macdonald and the offensive play calls of new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
"Week 1 often times brings these types of games where there are coaching changes," Payton said Monday. "Certainly, Mike will be heavily involved in what they do defensively [and] offensively. They have a coordinator coming from the University of Washington and [a] new special teams coach. There's a lot of moving parts. We just finished talking about it as a team. If you're looking specifically at the tape to study individuals, then all of last year's film is relevant [and] certainly the preseason this year. [If it's] more specifically scheme, then you get into deciding what you want to put into your cut-ups, whether it be Ravens film or whether it be preseason film. It's not that uncommon in Week 1."
Macdonald, the youngest head coach in the NFL, earned the Seattle job after an impressive two-year stint as the Ravens' defensive coordinator. Baltimore allowed 17.5 points per game from 2022-23 — which ranked second in the NFL — and posted the league's top scoring defense in 2023.
"Obviously with Mike, there's a lot of Baltimore in the cut-ups that we're studying, and yet how much makes it in Year 1 into Seattle's package?" Payton said Wednesday. "Only they would know that — not us. They do a good job with disguise. They hold their disguises well. They create some challenges."
Grubb, meanwhile, didn't travel far for his new role after calling plays for the University of Washington over the last couple of seasons. The Huskies averaged nearly 38 points per game over the last two seasons, which ranked seventh among Power 5 schools. Washington led all FBS schools in downfield completions (10-plus air yards) and pass yards in 2023. Grubb, though, has also emphasized his scheme in the NFL will begin with establishing the run.
Joseph said he knows he'll have to adjust quickly as a play caller to Grubb's system when the game arrives.
"He's called plays before in football, and obviously he was at [the University of Washington] last year in college," Joseph said Thursday. "He has three games in preseason this year, and his background kind of speaks to the film. It's somewhat challenging, because you're not sure what else he has obviously from college to now. We can't worry about that. Our system should handle most of it. We have to nail what we know and adjust to the rest. It is challenging to not see enough of red zone or of third downs. We have plenty of first- and second-down stuff, but the situational football areas, that's where we're short. We have to adjust when we see it on Sunday, and you hope your system catches most of it."
