ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — As Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton and General Manager George Paton occasionally caught glimpses of pre-draft analysis, there were occasions when they would cringe.
Those moments didn't stem from off-base takes or poor evaluation of prospects. Instead, they came when draft analysts came too close to the mark.
After the Broncos identified Oregon quarterback Bo Nix as their ideal target, Payton preferred analysts would avoid linking Denver to the 2023 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year.
"Once we knew [Nix] was our target," Payton said, "every time [NFL Network Analyst] Chase Daniel or [ESPN Analyst] Dan Orlovsky got on [and said], 'This is perfect!' I would be like, 'Shh! Can you be quiet?'"
Daniel and Orlovsky weren't the only offenders, as many recent mock drafts linked the Broncos to the Heisman Trophy finalist.
"We did our best to talk about other players and directions," Payton said. "It's difficult sometimes. You don't want everyone to know that this is the player. But I saw what you guys saw. … We're like, 'Ah!' Those are things you can't control."
The mocks were accurate, but the Broncos were still able to get their desired quarterback. And as Payton and Paton made clear on Thursday, there were a variety of reasons why Nix became their top option.
"I would say that probably early into the process … he stood out in a lot of areas," Payton said. "You pay close attention to all the film study. Obviously, he's played a lot of football, but [he stood out in] sack differential, turnover differential, accuracy, third-down passing. [He was] first, first, first, first in this class. First in end-of-half, first in end-of-game, two-minute situations, second in red zone. Then let's do another passing statistic and remove a lot of the short, underneath throws. Obviously, that's part of what they do offensively, and you remove that, and you come back with the analytics and it's still first. I would say his arm strength … — we saw it at the Pro Day, but even in the private workout — was very good."
Nix's football intelligence also stood out in test, as the Broncos sent Nix three days worth of offensive install at 5 p.m. ahead of a 9 a.m. meeting the next day.
"It's almost purposefully a little bit more [information] than we think [a prospect can handle]," Payton said. "Then at what point do they fail? In other words, it's a lot.
"… He's sitting there in the office, and you could tell that he probably had been in the hotel room, do not disturb, pot of coffee, just grinding on it. So he's extremely intelligent, really smart."
On the field, Nix avoided sacks and other negative plays and made "a ton of NFL throws" in Oregon's offense," according to Payton. Nix also processed quickly, set an NCAA record for completion percentage in 2023 and played well in big moments.
"When you watch him, it's pretty calming," Payton said. "He's very efficient."
Nix's size, background and response to adversity also struck a positive note with the Broncos, who evaluated a slew of quarterbacks before settling on Nix.
"Obviously, it's a long process," Paton said. "It's a year-long process. We're in the draft, for the quarterbacks, for all the positions. It was really important for us to go through the whole process with all these quarterbacks. We liked all of the quarterbacks. With Bo, we spent a lot of time, starting at the Senior Bowl, Combine, we did a private [workout] out there in Oregon. Sean probably wasn't familiar with Bo early in the process, and then started watching tape [and] liked him a lot. He fit a lot of things Sean likes in a quarterback. The private workout [was] where we [spent] just three hours just meeting with Bo, just getting to know him. … Then, just watching him throw.
"So that was kind of the start, and then you get through more tape and more tape, and he was just an ideal fit for what we want here."
Plenty of people saw the fit before the draft, much to the chagrin of Payton and Paton. On Thursday, the perfect hypothetical became reality.
