DENVER — Can the Broncos keep rolling?
In the midst of a three-game win streak, Denver is set to welcome the Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) for a second consecutive divisional tilt.
"It's week to week," Head Coach Sean Payton said of his team's belief. "I think the makeup is good, and there's some grit. I think confidence, as I've said before, is born out of demonstrated ability. You have to do it, and there's nothing like it. Then you can feed on it, and you've all seen that. Hopefully, we're bringing in the right type of players that have that intellect [and] that confidence. There's a fine line between a groove and a rut, and we can't ever forget that."
With a win, the Broncos would improve to 4-2 and two games over .500. Denver hasn't held a 4-2 record since 2016, and the Broncos haven't been more than a game over .500 since the early weeks of 2021.
Since the NFL's postseason format changed in 2020, 72 percent of teams (18-of-25) that began the year with a 4-2 record have gone on to make the postseason. Teams that started 3-3 earned postseason berths at a 33 percent clip (11-of-33).
To reach 4-2, the Broncos will need to pass a difficult test against a Chargers team led by new head coach Jim Harbaugh.
"They do a great job," Payton said. "If you look up his overall career as a pro coach, [the] turnover margin is off the charts. They protect the ball, they're smart and they're well coached. They always have balance relative to running the football and throwing the football. … [He does] all the things that are necessary to develop a team, and he's done that wherever he's been."
Here are the questions that will determine if the Broncos can earn a Week 6 win over the Chargers.
CAN THE BRONCOS EARN THE EDGE IN THE RUN GAME?
There's plenty of intrigue around the Oregon reunion for quarterbacks Bo Nix and Justin Herbert, but Sunday's matchup may be decided on the ground.
"It's a different offense," Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph said of the Chargers. "It's not what we've seen from these guys in the last couple years. It is run first, run second and quick game and play-action pass. It's a different, unique, old-school — I would say — offensive football team."
The Chargers have the league's ninth-ranked rushing offense, and running back J.K. Dobbins is averaging the third-most yards per carry this season. Dobbins was less effective in the Chargers' last two performances — 38.0 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry, compared to 133 yards per game and 9.9 yards per carry in the season's first two weeks — but he remains a threat.
With the run game's performance, the Chargers have asked less of Herbert — and he's posted a 90-plus passer rating in each of his four games this season. Denver's 10th-ranked run defense will need to slow Dobbins and the Chargers to put Los Angeles in third-and-long scenarios.
On the opposite side of the ball, Denver will look to keep its success on the ground going after recording at least 100 yards in each of the last three games. After averaging 17.3 rushing yards per game and 2.2 yards per carry in Weeks 1-3, running back Javonte Williams has responded in the last two games with 69.0 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry.
During the Broncos' three-game win streak, the team has used its rushing game to take over games, particularly on key second-half drives. Against the Chargers, Denver could look to use that formula again.
CAN DENVER WIN THE TURNOVER BATTLE?
The Broncos have posted a plus-four turnover margin during their three-game winning streak, as they've given the ball away just twice and earned six takeaways. In a Week 5 win over the Raiders, Denver recorded three interceptions, including a critical 100-yard pick six. Since Week 3, the Broncos have not lost the turnover battle.
The turnaround was stark, as Denver lost the takeaway battle in each of its first two games and recorded a minus-three turnover margin during that span.
Against a Chargers defense that ranks 10th in takeaways, it will be critical for the Broncos' offense to avoid mistakes. Nix has not thrown an interception, and he recognized the importance of protecting the football in Week 6.
"This is going to be one of those turnover games," Nix said. "Who can win the turnover margin, who can protect the ball and who can cause takeaway[s]? It's going to be important, especially for this game."
The Broncos' defense may also need to be at its best to force a Los Angeles turnover. The Chargers have just two giveaways this season, as Justin Herbert has thrown a single interception. Los Angeles' plus-five turnover differential is tied for third in the NFL entering Week 6.
As Denver looks to force turnovers, they may be able to do so by getting after Herbert. The Broncos' defense has posted the second-most quarterback hits this season and third-most sacks and quarterback pressures. According to Next Gen Stats, Herbert has recorded a 64.1 passer rating this season while pressured, and his passer rating under pressure has dropped each year of his career.
CAN THE BRONCOS MAKE THE MOST OF THEIR RED-ZONE OPPORTUNITIES?
If Sunday's matchup is tight, the result may swing based on which team can earn touchdowns instead of field goals in the red zone. The Chargers and Broncos have the second- and third-ranked red-zone defenses, respectively, entering Week 6 — and the Chargers have only allowed seven red-zone trips this season.
"We got through the numbers, and they've been near the top of the league," Payton said. "The one thing they've been really good at is, they haven't had [to] defend a lot of trips into the red zone, so there's a start. The film this week, you're going to the preseason because of that. That's pretty impressive."
The Broncos, though, may have found their stride in the red zone. Over the last three weeks, Denver has scored touchdowns on six of its last eight red-zone trips, excluding a kneeldown sequence at the end of a Week 5 win. In the Broncos' win over the Raiders, they scored touchdowns on their first three red-zone trips as part of a 34-0 run.
Down by the goal line, it's possible Nix's dual-threat ability could become an advantage for Denver. Nix scored a 1-yard rushing touchdown in Week 5, and he is just one of seven rookie quarterbacks since 1970 to throw for at least three touchdowns and rush for at least three touchdowns over his team's first five games.
Should Denver keep up its recent red-zone success, that could be the difference in Sunday's matchup.
